Post by inthestands on Aug 19, 2020 9:50:45 GMT -5
As we all know, the 2020 NCAA softball season was tragically cut short this year with the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic. In the interest of the health and safety of all softball players, fans and our global community, I fully support this decision. But even though I support the decision to stop the season, this question still bothered me-- who would have won the 2020 national title if the season was fully played out?
And rather than try to guess or give some sort of fanboy response, I want to use data to give some teeth to my prediction. After much debate, I decided to determine the champion for 2020 by taking date from the 2019 champion, UCLA, through tallying up their national statistical rankings in every major team category, then to take the same tallies for the top teams in 2020 and see who matches UCLA's 2019 numbers best.
Let's check out 2019 NCAA national champion UCLA's 2019 statistical rankings first:
Batting Avg: #3 national ranking (.339)
ERA: #2 national ranking (1.43)
Fielding %: #20 national ranking, (.974)
Runs per game: #4 national ranking (7.03)
HR per game: #15 national ranking (1.26)
Win Loss %: #2 national ranking (.903)
Slugging %: #8 national ranking (.547)
On Base %: #7 national ranking (.416)
What stands out the most to me about UCLA's 2019 numbers is their high national ranks in batting average (#3), ERA (#2), and runs per game (#4). If you are good at putting the ball in play, scoring runs, and your pitchers can keep runs off the board you are going to be a very solid team! And UCLA executed this at an elite level in each of those phases of the game in 2019.
So what about 2020? Who comes closest to matching 2019 UCLA's numbers? You guessed it! 2020 UCLA. Check out the data from UCLA from 2020:
Batting Avg: #2 national ranking (.368)
ERA: #2 national ranking (1.20)
Fielding %: #21 national ranking, (.974)
Runs per game: #4 national ranking (7.69)
HR per game: #22 national ranking (1.19)
Win Loss %: #1 national ranking (.962)
Slugging %: #2 national ranking (.453)
On Base %: #2 national ranking (.453)
Data from the early season is not necessarily the same as data from the full season; the teams barely started conference play by the time the season started But I think the dominant excellence of UCLA in 2020 had plenty of opportunity to shine through. First, in 2020 UCLA improved on their batting average ranking from #3 to #2 and added 29 points to their team batting average raising it from .329 to .368. UCLA in 2020 also scored incredibly high nationally in power numbers like slugging percentage (#2 nationally), and on base percentage (#2 nationally). And UCLA maintained their #4 national ranking in runs scored AND added 66 points to their runs per game average by increasing from .703 to 7.69. Third, UCLA's pitching staff (remember in 2020 they were without Rachel Garcia!) maintained its #2 national rank and even reduced their team ERA 23 points from 1.43 to 1.20. When it comes to matching the excellence of UCLA's 2019 team, the team that comes closest (and in many cases even exceeds) is UCLA's 2020 team.
Ladies and gentleman, your 2020 national champion is UCLA!
What other teams would have been in the hunt in 2020? Based on the numbers, second place goes to the Texas Longhorns. Let's check the data!
Batting Avg: #1 national ranking (.376)
ERA: #17 national ranking (1.78)
Fielding %: #141 national ranking, (.958)
Runs per game: #8 national ranking (7.67)
HR per game: #63 national ranking (0.89)
Win Loss %: #6 national ranking (.889)
Slugging %: #5 national ranking (.597)
On Base %: #3 national ranking (.450)
Texas had an excellent team and ranked, nationally, very highly in many important statistical categories. However, even though Texas was closest to UCLA's numbers, they still feel like they are in a 2nd tier compared to UCLA. While they were able to match or exceed UCLA in critical numbers like batting average (#1 nationally), on base percentage (one behind UCLA at #2 nationally), and slugging percentage (one ahead of UCLA at #6 nationally), the data shows Texas does not have the same caliber of pitching staff. UCLA was #2 nationally in team ERA Texas was #17. Texas allowed an average of half a run more per game than UCLA even with comparable hitting numbers. Plus, Texas was also over 100 spots lower than UCLA in fielding percentage. Texas's offense in 2020 was good enough to make a deep run in the WCWS, but the pitching and defense were not quite on the level of UCLA and for that reason I think UCLA would have ultimately triumphed in a head to head match-up with Texas.
The final team that deserves to be in the conversation as a national title contender is Washington. Let's go to the numbers:
Batting Avg: #3 national ranking (.368)
ERA: #69 national ranking (2.68)
Fielding %: #4 national ranking, (.982)
Runs per game: #5 national ranking (7.68)
HR per game: #27 national ranking (1.16)
Win Loss %: #2 national ranking (.920)
Slugging %: #10 national ranking (.576)
On Base %: #4 national ranking (.447)
Much like Texas, Washington can match UCLA offensively, but their defense is not on the same plane as UCLA. Washington compares very favorably to UCLA in batting average (#3 for Washington versus #2 UCLA), runs per game (#5 for Washington versus #4 for UCLA), and on base percentage, (#4 for Washington versus #2 for UCLA). But when it come to pitching an defense UCLA is not quite on the same level as UCLA. Washington is back 67 spots nationally in ERA. The pitching for Washington, as evinced by their early season numbers, is good-- but not the great level of pitching that would be needed to defeat a Texas or UCLA team for supremacy in the NCAA in 2020.
No team better matches the excellence of 2019 UCLA than 2020 UCLA. Other teams are comparable in offense, but no other team comes close to matching UCLA's defense. And definitely no team comes close to matching UCLA's top ranks both offensively and defensively together. So bring out the trophy! Data and empirical analysis should be enough to award UCLA the national championship trophy for 2020. No one was on UCLA's level in 2020, and UCLA would have ultimately prevailed in the WCWS.
Give them the trophy already!